Vaccine effectiveness against hospital admission in South African health care workers who received a homologous booster of Ad26.COV2 during an Omicron COVID19 wave: Preliminary Results of the Sisonke 2 Study. (preprint)

Following the results of the ENSEMBLE 2 study, which demonstrated improved vaccine efficacy of a two-dose regimen of Ad26.COV.2 vaccine given 2 months apart, we expanded the Sisonke study which had provided single dose Ad26.COV.2 vaccine to almost 500 000 health care workers (HCW) in South Africa to include a booster dose of the Ad26.COV.2. Sisonke 2 enrolled 227 310 HCW from the 8 November to the 17 December 2021. Enrolment commenced before the onset of the Omicron driven fourth wave in South Africa affording us an opportunity to evaluate early VE in preventing hospital admissions of a homologous boost of the Ad26.COV.2 vaccine given 6-9 months after the initial vaccination in HCW. We estimated vaccine effectiveness (VE) of the Ad26.COV2.S vaccine booster in 69 092 HCW as compared to unvaccinated individuals enrolled in the same managed care organization using a test negative design. We compared VE against COVID19 admission for omicron during the period 15 November to 20 December 2021. After adjusting for confounders, we observed that VE for hospitalisation increased over time since booster dose, from 63% (95%CI 31-81%); to 84% (95% CI 67-92%) and then 85% (95% CI: 54-95%), 0-13 days, 14-27 days, and 1-2 months post-boost. We provide the first evidence of the effectiveness of a homologous Ad26.COV.2 vaccine boost given 6-9 months after the initial single vaccination series during a period of omicron variant circulation. This data is important given the increased reliance on the Ad26.COV.2 vaccine in Africa.

Breakthrough Covid-19 infections during periods of circulating Beta, Delta and Omicron variants of concern, among health care workers in the Sisonke Ad26.COV2.S vaccine trial, South Africa (preprint)

Background We report breakthrough infections (BTIs) during periods of circulating Beta, Delta and Omicron variants of concern, among health care workers (HCW) participating in the Sisonke phase 3B Ad26.COV2.S vaccine trial ( ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04838795 ). Data were gathered between 17 February and 15 December 2021. Duration of each period in this study was 89 days for Beta, 180 days or Delta and 30 days for Omicron. Results A total of 40 538 BTIs were observed, with 609 during Beta, 22 279 during Delta and 17 650 during Omicron. By 15 December, daily infections during Omicron were three times that seen during the peak observed during Delta. However, unlike the Delta period, with Omicron there was a clear and early de-coupling of hospitalisation from cases as a percentage of the Delta peak curves. Omicron significantly infected a greater proportion of HCW in the 18-30 year age-group, compared with the 55+ age group. There were 1 914 BTI-related hospitalisations - 77, 1 429 and 408 in the Beta (89 days), Delta (180 days) and Omicron (30 days) periods, respectively. During Omicron, 91% hospitalized HCWs required general ward care, 6% high care and 3% intensive care, compared with 89% general ward care, 4% high care and 7% intensive care, during Delta and 78% general care, 7% high care and 16% intensive care during Beta (p<0.001). During Beta and Beta 43% of hospitalized HCW needed supplementary oxygen and 7-8% needed ventilation, compared with 16% and 0.2% respectively during the Omicron period (p<0.001). Median length of hospitalization was significantly lower with Omicron compared with Beta and Delta (3 days compared with 5-6 days, p<0.001). Conclusions We illustrate more BTIs but reassuringly less severe Covid-19 with Omicron. Re-infections and Omicron-driven primary infections were likely driven by high population SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence, waning vaccine effectiveness over time, increased Omicron infectivity, Omicron immune evasion or a combination of these and need further investigation. Follow-up of this cohort will continue and reports will be updated, as time and infections accrue.

Safety of the single-dose Ad26.CoV2.S vaccine among healthcare workers in the phase 3b Sisonke study in South Africa (preprint)

Background: The Sisonke openlabel phase 3b implementation study aimed to assess the safety and effectiveness of the Janssen Ad26.CoV2.S vaccine among health care workers (HCWs) in South Africa. Here, we present the safety data. Methods: We monitored adverse events (AEs) at vaccination sites, through self reporting triggered by text messages after vaccination, health care provider reports and by active case finding. The frequency and incidence rate of non serious and serious AEs were evaluated from day of first vaccination (17 February 2021) until 28 days after the final vaccination (15 June 2021). COVID 19 breakthrough infections, hospitalisations and deaths were ascertained via linkage of the electronic vaccination register with existing national databases. Findings: Of 477,234 participants, 10,279 (2.2%) reported AEs, of which 139 (1.4%) were serious. Women reported more AEs than men (2.3% vs. 1.6%). AE reports decreased with increasing age (3.2% for 18 to 30, 2.1% for 31 to 45, 1.8% for 46 to 55 and 1.5% in >55 year olds). Participants with previous COVID 19 infection reported slightly more AEs (2.6% vs. 2.1%). The commonest reactogenicity events were headache and body aches, followed by injection site pain and fever, and most occurred within 48 hours of vaccination. Two cases of Thrombosis with Thrombocytopenia Syndrome and four cases of Guillain Barre Syndrome were reported post-vaccination. Serious AEs and AEs of special interest including vascular and nervous system events, immune system disorders and deaths occurred at lower than the expected population rates. Interpretation: The single-dose Ad26.CoV2.S vaccine had an acceptable safety profile supporting the continued use of this vaccine in our setting.

The first month of the COVID-19 outbreak in 46 sub-Saharan African countries; a comparative analysis of growth rates (preprint)

Background The COVID-19 outbreak in sub-Saharan African countries started after those in Asia, Europe and North America, on 28th February 2020. The susceptibility to infection of populations in that region has been debated. Outbreaks on the scale of those seen elsewhere would pose substantial challenges. There are reasons for concern that transmission may be high and difficult to control, rapidly exceeding capacity to meet the needs for hospitalization and critical care. Methods We obtained data on daily new confirmed cases for all 46 countries from the World Health Organization, and used these to model and visualize growth trajectories using an AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. We then estimated doubling times from growth rates estimated from Poisson regression models, and by back counting from the most recent observation. We also calculated the time from 1st to 50th case, and the time from 5th to 100th case. These indicators were compared with the same summary indicators of growth at the same stage of the outbreak in highly affected European countries. Results Kenya was the only country with clear evidence of exponential growth. Nineteen countries had either reported no cases, were in the first few days of the outbreak, or had reported fewer than 10 cases over a period of two or more weeks. For the remaining 27 countries we identified four growth patterns: slow linear growth, more rapid linear growth, variable growth patterns over the course of the outbreak, and early signs of possible exponential growth. For those in the last three groups, doubling times ranged from 3 to 4 days, times from 1st to 50th case from 12 to 29 days, and from 5th to 100th case from eight to 15 days. These early indicators are comparable to those in European countries that have gone on to have substantial outbreaks, and time to 50th case was shorter suggesting lesser effectiveness of contact-tracing and quarantine in the early phase. Conclusion The 46 sub-Saharan African countries, home to over one billion people, are at a tipping point with clear potential for the outbreak to follow a similar course as in HIC in the global north. Radical population-level physical distancing measures may be required, but their impact on poor, disadvantaged and vulnerable people and communities need mitigating. Health systems in the region need urgent technical and material support, with testing, personal protection, and hospital/ critical care.